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Market Brief: A multi-year bull market

08/28/2016 The consolidation developed into a correction last week, with a substantial sell-off on Wed leading to the week’s lows on Thu, as the market waited for Janet Yellen’s Friday talk. Fri saw a sharp recovery bleed out through the day as Yellen’s hawkish talk was considered and reconsidered. The dollar rose sharply as the probability increased of a September rate hike. Gold fell $20 for the week closing at 1321, silver fell 66 cents closing at 18.66, and the gold-silver ratio rose to 70.8. Miners closed down 11.5% (HUI).

Friday’s weakness suggests that the correction isn’t over. Gold has yet to test the 1300-1310 area, which may happen early in the week, but a recovery in precious metal prices seems unlikely until after the August employment report on Friday. A weak report would make a September rate hike unlikely, while a strong report could send prices lower. We will take any further sell-off as a buying opportunity in miners — especially smaller producers with solid cash flow and explorers/developers with quality deposits.

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Updated 24/7.

The Liberal Theology of Gun Control

terrorism

Guns are what you talk about to avoid having to talk about Islamist terrorism. “Instead of debating the antiterror policy of the past seven years, we’re all arguing over gun control. Then again, if you were Mr. Obama or Mrs. Clinton, isn’t this the debate you’d prefer?” William McGurn, WSJ (image: Getty)

Why would anyone want a firearm? “Self defense, Locke wrote in his Two Treatises of Government, is a part of the law of nature and in consequence cannot be denied the community, even against the king himself.” Charles C.W. Cooke, National Review

Gold: Barbarous Relic

Cash or Gold? You decide. Watch full-screen.

Did you know...?

Bullion Vault

You can easily buy physical gold in any amount 24/7 and store it outside the US. BullionVault cares for over $2 billion of gold for more than 50,000 clients, making BV the world’s largest online investment gold service. Store your gold in high-security vaults in Singapore, Zurich, London or Toronto. WHY BV? LEARN MORE.

Lincoln on banksters"I see in the near future a crisis approaching that unnerves me and causes me to tremble for the safety of my Country. Corporations have been enthroned, an era of corruption in high places will follow, and the money power of the Country will endeavor to prolong its reign by working upon the prejudices of the People, until the wealth is aggregated in a few hands, and the Republic is destroyed." — Abraham Lincoln, Nov. 21, 1864

Martin Feldstein US bankruptcyIs America Headed for Bankruptcy? (July 2016)
“America’s exploding deficit is cause for major concern and yet no presidential candidate in the running right now seems to be talking about it.” —Martin Feldstein

The Fed Sets Another Trap "In these days of froth, the persistence of extraordinary policy accommodation in a financial system flooded with liquidity poses a great danger. Indeed, that could well be the lesson of recent equity- and currency-market volatility and, of course, plummeting oil prices. With so much dry kindling, it will not take much to spark the next conflagration." --Stephen S Roach, Dec 23, 2014

Alan Greenspan: The gold standard is not possible in a welfare stateThe Fed’s balance sheet is a pile of tinder, but it hasn’t been lit … inflation will eventually have to rise.

Where will the price of gold be in 5 years?
Greenspan: “Higher.”
How much?
Greenspan: “Measurably.” (New Orleans Investment Conference, Oct 25, 2014)

weimar hyperinflation with gold-mark chart

Mercenary Musings: "We should always be cognizant that gold is the only real money and its true value is never subject to the decrees, fiats, machinations, whims, let alone the dreams, fantasies and whimsies of elected and/or autocratic national governments." — Micky Fulp

RISK DISCLOSURE: Trading of equities, futures, options, forex and precious metals has large potential rewards, but also large potential risks and is not suitable for all investors. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you purchase a program or product introduced on this site.

TradersGame ebook guide for long-term precious metals investors:

New version coming. Watch for it.

You can protect your assets and assure your financial survival with precious metals in your portfolio. Diversification is always best for the long-term, so what’s the right mix for your needs? Get the answer.

How to Buy Gold and Silver Today (to Preserve your Assets Tomorrow)

How to buy gold and silver today guide for long-term investors

A Balanced Portfolio

Bullion market specialist Jerry White suggests a balanced precious metals portfolio — based on an investor’s risk tolerance and other factors — and analyzes the benefits and costs of each investment product, from junior mining stocks and gold coins to bullion bars and platinum group metals. For gold novices and experienced investors alike. White is a former trading manager of a major bullion house, director of broker Brody, White & Co., exec of a Comex depository and consultant to Comex, major refiners and coin wholesalers.

New version coming. Watch for it.

Learning Center

  • monetary policy failureSF Fed Pres Says Worse to Come — Admits Policy Failure (August 2016)
    “The critical implication of a lower natural rate of interest is that conventional monetary policy has less room to stimulate the economy during an economic downturn, owing to a lower bound on how low interest rates can go. This will necessitate a greater reliance on unconventional tools like central bank balance sheets, forward guidance, and potentially even negative policy rates. In this new normal, recessions will tend to be longer and deeper, recoveries slower, and the risks of unacceptably low inflation and the ultimate loss of the nominal anchor will be higher. We have already gotten a first taste of the effects of a low r-star, with uncomfortably low inflation and growth despite very low interest rates. Unfortunately, if the status quo endures, the future is likely to hold more of the same—with the possibility of even more severe challenges to maintaining price and economic stability. To avoid this fate, central banks and governments should critically reassess the efficacy of their current approaches and carefully consider redesigning economic policy strategies to better cope with a low r-star environment.” —San Francisco Fed president John Williams
  • Negative interest ratesThey’re Coming for your Cash "It might sound like a conspiracy theory spun by right-wing crazies. But judging by the increasing desperation of governments to reboot the world economy, it just might happen. . . If you don’t already own some gold in fully allocated form, now would be a good time to consider buying some." — Mark Nestmann
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